Sante(002159) 中国银河·2024-10-30 06:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, citing its clear operational improvement trend and positive growth prospects [2][5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.5 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%, but net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 16.1% to 1.55 billion yuan [1] - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue turned positive, reaching 2.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, driven by growth in key projects such as Fanjing Mountain, Huashan Cableway, and Zhuhai Cableway [1] - The company's gross profit margin in Q3 2024 was 65.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2 percentage points, but the decline narrowed compared to the first half of 2024 [2] - The company's management expense ratio decreased by 3.2 percentage points year-on-year to 11.1%, reflecting improved internal operations and cost control [2] - Excluding the impact of the Jintang Investment dispute, the company's Q3 non-GAAP net profit margin was 35.6%, a year-on-year increase of 1.1 percentage points [2] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 7.19 billion yuan in 2023 to 9.07 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.7% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 1.28 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.27 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 10.45% [4] - The company's gross profit margin is expected to remain stable, increasing slightly from 62.56% in 2023 to 63.60% in 2026 [4] - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to decline from 21.48 in 2023 to 12.06 in 2026, indicating potential undervaluation [4] Growth Drivers - The company's Q3 revenue growth was driven by strong performance in key projects, including Fanjing Mountain (18% revenue growth), Huashan Cableway (12% revenue growth), and Zhuhai Cableway (22% revenue growth) [1] - The company has a pipeline of new projects, such as the Muxin Valley project in Qiandao Lake, which is expected to start contributing to revenue in 2026 [2] - The company's focus on brand marketing, cultural integration, and e-commerce operations has helped drive growth in its key projects [1] Valuation - The company's current valuation is considered significantly undervalued, with a PE ratio of 15X for 2024, 13X for 2025, and 12X for 2026 [2] - The company's PB ratio is expected to decline from 2.18 in 2023 to 1.49 in 2026, further supporting the undervaluation thesis [4]