月度美国宏观洞察：大选结果揭晓在即，将如何影响美国经济和金融市场？

Economic Overview - In September, non-farm payrolls unexpectedly increased by 254,000, indicating a stronger labor market than anticipated[3] - The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1% in September[5] - Core CPI inflation rates exceeded expectations for two consecutive months, driven primarily by a rebound in super-core services CPI[7] Monetary Policy Outlook - The expectation remains for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, with a total of seven cuts anticipated by July next year, bringing the policy rate down to 3%[1] - Risks are skewed towards a slower pace of rate cuts, as more economic data is needed to support the "no landing" narrative[16] Political Landscape - Trump's chances of winning the election have increased, with a 15 percentage point lead over Harris in key swing states[17] - If Trump wins and implements his tax cuts, the economic growth and inflation impact could be more significant compared to Harris's policies[21] Financial Market Insights - The dollar index rose by 3.5% in October, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 12.3%[24] - The market anticipates that if Trump wins, the dollar index could continue to rise, with a year-end forecast of 106[24] Investment Risks - Potential risks include rapid rate cuts by the Fed, geopolitical tensions leading to inflation, and unexpected outcomes from the U.S. elections[1]