9月财政收支数据点评：9月财政收入同比转为增长

Revenue Performance - In September, national general public budget revenue increased by 2.45% year-on-year, marking the first increase of the year[2] - From January to September, national general public budget revenue totaled 163,059 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.4 percentage points compared to January-August[2] - Non-tax revenue saw a significant increase of 25.2% year-on-year in September, compared to a 5.0% decline in tax revenue[2][3] Tax Revenue Breakdown - For the first nine months, national tax revenue decreased by 5.3%, with a notable decline in domestic value-added tax by 5.6%[3] - Corporate income tax revenue was 32,263 billion yuan, down 4.3% year-on-year, but increased by 25.4% in September compared to the previous month[3] - Individual income tax revenue decreased by 4.9% year-on-year, with a smaller decline of 1.8% in September[3] Expenditure Trends - National general public budget expenditure for January to September was 201,779 billion yuan, an increase of 2% year-on-year[6] - In September, general public budget expenditure grew by 5.2% year-on-year, significantly higher than the previous month[6] - Social security expenditure rose by 12.4% year-on-year in September, while science and technology expenditure fell by 20.5%[7] Government Fund Budget - From January to September, government fund budget revenue decreased by 20.2%, with local government fund budget revenue down by 22.5%[7] - National government fund budget expenditure was 60,448 billion yuan, a decline of 8.9% year-on-year[8] Economic Outlook - The report suggests that with the implementation of a series of incremental policy measures, fiscal revenue is expected to continue growing[9][10] - Risks include potential geopolitical tensions and unexpected economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[11]