Guolian Securities·2024-10-30 09:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer (600600) is "Buy" and is maintained [2][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 8.891 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.28%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.348 billion yuan, down 9.03% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.260 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.94% year-on-year. The decline in ton price has slowed down compared to previous quarters, and cost benefits are expected to continue. Despite weak beer demand in Q3, the company has increased sales expenses and marketing efforts, leading to short-term pressure on net profit margins. Given that the company is a leader in the high-end domestic beer market, there is still room for ton price increases, and the current base is gradually lowering. Additionally, cost benefits are expected to continue in Q4, hence the "Buy" rating is maintained [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 28.959 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.52%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.990 billion yuan, an increase of 1.67% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 4.686 billion yuan, up 1.96% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, the company sold 2.155 million kiloliters of beer at an average price of 4,125.75 yuan per ton, with sales volume and ton price down 5.11% and 0.18% year-on-year, respectively [6][2]. Sales and Marketing Strategy - The company has focused on high-end products, with better sales performance in the mid-to-high-end segment. The sales expenses have increased due to enhanced marketing strategies, including sports, music, and experiential marketing, which have put short-term pressure on net profit margins. The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 42.12%, an increase of 1.19 percentage points year-on-year [6][2]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 31.992 billion yuan, 36.605 billion yuan, and 34.923 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -5.73%, +5.04%, and +3.92%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.390 billion yuan, 4.786 billion yuan, and 5.158 billion yuan for the same years, with corresponding growth rates of 2.86%, 9.02%, and 7.78% [6][7].