PETROCHINA(601857) Guolian Securities·2024-10-30 14:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3]. Core Views - The company, China Petroleum (601857), reported a revenue of 22,562.79 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.13%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1,325.22 billion yuan, an increase of 0.66% year-on-year [2][6]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 7,024.10 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.45% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.30%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 439.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.31% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.29% [2][6]. - The Brent crude oil futures average price in Q3 2024 was 78.71 USD/barrel, down 8.40% year-on-year and 7.43% quarter-on-quarter. Despite the decline in oil prices, the company maintained stable performance with a quarter-on-quarter net profit increase [6][7]. - The company’s refined oil sales remained steady, with total sales volume of refined oil reaching 120 million tons in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% [6]. - Natural gas sales increased by 8.6% year-on-year, reaching 2,098.20 billion cubic meters, indicating potential for performance improvement as the peak season approaches [6]. - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 178.7 billion yuan, 185.8 billion yuan, and 198.6 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.98 yuan, 1.01 yuan, and 1.08 yuan, and PE ratios of 8.4X, 8.1X, and 7.6X [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 22,562.79 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.13% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1,325.22 billion yuan, an increase of 0.66% year-on-year [2][6]. - In Q3 2024, the revenue was 7,024.10 billion yuan, down 12.45% year-on-year, and the net profit was 439.11 billion yuan, down 5.31% year-on-year [2][6]. Production and Sales - The company’s crude oil production for the first three quarters of 2024 was 708 million barrels, an increase of 0.3% year-on-year, while natural gas production was 3.80 trillion cubic feet, an increase of 4.0% year-on-year [6]. - Refined oil consumption showed mixed results, with diesel consumption down 3.79% and gasoline consumption up 4.71% year-on-year [6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming natural gas peak season, which may enhance its performance further [6]. - The company’s core competitiveness is anticipated to continue to mitigate the negative impacts of fluctuating oil prices [6].