再看“特朗普交易”：情景推演与资产线索

Core Insights - The report highlights the rising market odds and support rates for Trump, indicating a renewed interest in the "Trump trade" and its potential impact on various assets depending on election outcomes [2][5] - The contrasting policies of Trump and Harris in areas such as taxation, trade, immigration, and energy are emphasized, with Trump's approach potentially leading to higher inflation risks and government debt pressures [5][9] - The report identifies three key asset clues amid election uncertainties: potential policy and economic impacts under different election outcomes, historical trends of asset performance in election years, and the importance of trade dependencies between the US and China [2][5] Group 1: Election Dynamics - Trump's market odds have increased significantly, with a probability of 47.5% for a Republican sweep, while Harris's odds stand at approximately 24.3% [10][11] - Polling data shows Trump slightly leading Harris nationally, with a support rate of 48.6% compared to Harris's 48.4% [11][12] - The report notes that the election remains competitive, particularly in key swing states where both candidates have narrow margins [11][12] Group 2: Policy Implications - Trump's policies are characterized by broad tax cuts and high tariffs, which may lead to increased fiscal deficits and inflation risks, while Harris's policies focus on middle-class support and clean energy investments [5][15] - The report suggests that Trump's fiscal expansion could stimulate demand and potentially lead to inflation, while also benefiting the dollar and gold as safe-haven assets [5][9] - The analysis indicates that Trump's proposed tax cuts and tariffs could significantly impact corporate profitability and stock market performance, particularly in cyclical and growth sectors [5][9] Group 3: Asset Clues - The report outlines potential economic and asset implications under four election scenarios, with a Republican sweep likely boosting stock market earnings expectations, while a Harris administration may have a more muted impact [5][19] - Historical trends indicate that equity assets typically underperform leading up to elections but tend to recover post-election, with financial sectors performing particularly well [5][19] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor US-China trade dependencies, as high tariffs could adversely affect certain sectors while presenting opportunities for others [5][19]