皖通高速：Q3业绩短期承压，宣广即将完成改扩建

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.043 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.10%. However, the revenue for the third quarter decreased by 1.47% year-on-year to 1.990 billion yuan. The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters was 1.221 billion yuan, down 9.60% year-on-year, with a third-quarter net profit of 411 million yuan, a decline of 19.57% year-on-year [3][7] - The toll revenue in Q3 decreased by 5.8% year-on-year, primarily due to weak transportation demand, diversion from surrounding road networks, and construction impacts. The main highway, the Congning Expressway, generated 374 million yuan in revenue, down 3.18% year-on-year. The Xuan-Guan and Guangci Expressways saw significant declines in revenue due to construction, with decreases of 67.09% and 63.37% respectively [7] - The company expects the expansion of the Xuan-Guan Expressway to be completed by the end of 2024, which is anticipated to gradually eliminate the negative impact on traffic flow caused by construction [7] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 7.539 billion yuan, 5.043 billion yuan, and 4.727 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.69%, -33.11%, and -6.27% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.606 billion yuan, 1.751 billion yuan, and 1.883 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of -3.24%, 9.03%, and 7.52% respectively [7][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.043 billion yuan, a 16.10% increase year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.221 billion yuan, down 9.60% year-on-year [3][7] - Q3 toll revenue was 1.018 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.78% year-on-year, with significant declines in certain expressways due to construction [7] Future Outlook - The company anticipates the completion of the Xuan-Guan Expressway expansion by the end of 2024, which is expected to improve traffic flow and revenue [7] - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 indicate a challenging period ahead, particularly in 2025 with a projected revenue drop [7][8]