Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haier Smart Home (6690 HK) with a target price of HKD 37.59, indicating a potential upside of 26.1% from the current closing price of HKD 29.80 [1][3][8]. Core Insights - Haier's overseas business continues to drive revenue growth, with a 3.8% year-on-year increase in Q3, while domestic sales declined by 3% [2][3]. - The company has improved its localization in the U.S. market, increasing its self-manufacturing and sales ratio to 98%, which enhances its ability to mitigate potential tariff risks [2]. - The overall profit outlook for the year remains positive, with expectations of a 15% growth in net profit [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, Haier's revenue and net profit grew by 2.2% and 15.3% year-on-year, reaching RMB 203 billion and RMB 15.1 billion, respectively [1]. - In Q3 alone, revenue and net profit showed a slight increase of 0.5% and 13.2% year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement to 31.3% [1][2]. - The company has optimized its expense ratios, with sales and management expense ratios improving by 0.5% and 0.1% year-on-year in Q3 [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Haier are set to increase from RMB 261.4 billion in 2023 to RMB 273.3 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 4.5% [5]. - Net profit is expected to rise from RMB 16.6 billion in 2023 to RMB 19.6 billion in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 17.9% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from RMB 1.79 in 2023 to RMB 2.11 in 2024 [5].
海尔智家：海外业务持续引领增长；加强本土化布局应对关税风险