青岛啤酒3Q24

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 68.51, maintaining a previous rating of "Buy" [2][3]. Core Views - The report indicates that Qingdao Beer experienced pressure on both volume and price in Q3 2024, leading to a slight decline in profitability. The company reported a revenue of RMB 28.96 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 4.99 billion, an increase of 1.7% [3][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery of the catering channel, which is expected to help restore volume and price growth in the future [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, Qingdao Beer achieved a revenue of RMB 8.89 billion, down 5.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 1.35 billion, down 9.0% year-on-year. The overall volume and price for the first three quarters were 6.785 million tons and RMB 4,268 per ton, respectively, reflecting a volume decrease of 7.0% and a price increase of 0.5% [3][5]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 42.1%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, supported by a decrease in raw material costs [5][6]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for Qingdao Beer is projected to be RMB 3.28, RMB 3.58, and RMB 3.84 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 4.9%, 9.1%, and 7.1% [4][6]. - The report adjusts the previous earnings forecast based on the disclosed sales volume, ton price, and cost changes, maintaining the "Buy" rating [3][4]. Market Position and Strategy - Qingdao Beer is noted for its strong brand assets and extensive distribution network, which are expected to support its recovery in the catering channel as the macroeconomic environment improves [3][4]. - The company continues to focus on high-quality development and product structure upgrades, aiming to strengthen its market position [3][4].