CIMC(000039) 东吴证券·2024-10-31 06:38Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Q3 net profit attributable to parent company was in line with expectations, driven by strong container demand recovery and improved offshore engineering performance [2] - Container demand is supported by global trade recovery and replacement needs, with the company maintaining a stable market share of over 40% [4] - Offshore engineering business benefits from cyclical recovery, with new orders increasing significantly [5] Financial Performance - 2024 Q1-3 revenue reached 129 billion yuan, up 36% YoY, with net profit attributable to parent company at 1.83 billion yuan, up 269% YoY [2] - Q3 revenue was 49.9 billion yuan, up 44% YoY, with net profit attributable to parent company at 960 million yuan, up 892% YoY [2] - 2024 Q3 gross margin was 13.6%, flat YoY, while net margin improved by 1.3pct to 2.7% [3] - 2024 Q3 operating expense ratio decreased by 0.57pct to 9.3% [3] Container Business - 2024 Q1-3 standard dry container sales reached 2.49 million TEU, up 422% YoY [2] - Global container fleet is approximately 50 million TEU, with annual replacement demand of 2.5 million TEU based on a 20-year lifespan [4] - Global container trade volume growth is expected to increase from 0.7% in 2023 to 5.2% in 2024, with continued growth in 2025 [4] Offshore Engineering Business - 2024 Q1-3 offshore engineering revenue increased by 78% YoY [2] - New orders for offshore engineering in 2024 Q1-3 reached 3.25 billion USD, up 121% YoY, with total backlog at 7.4 billion USD, up 42% YoY [5] - Offshore drilling platforms and FPSO orders are expected to grow due to stable oil prices and increased capital expenditure by oil companies [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to parent company is forecasted at 2.5/3.3/4.8 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19/14/10x [5] - 2024-2026 revenue is forecasted at 140.8/157.9/171 billion yuan, with YoY growth of 10.17%/12.11%/8.32% [1] - 2024-2026 EPS is forecasted at 0.46/0.61/0.88 yuan per share [1]