Tsingtao Brewery(SH:600600)2024-10-31 07:09Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 68.51, maintaining a previous rating of "Buy" [2][3]. Core Views - The report indicates that Qingdao Beer experienced pressure on both volume and price in Q3 2024, leading to a slight decline in profitability. The company reported a revenue of RMB 28.96 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 4.99 billion, an increase of 1.7% year-on-year [3][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery of the catering channel, which is expected to help restore volume and price growth in the future [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, Qingdao Beer achieved a revenue of RMB 8.89 billion, down 5.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 1.35 billion, down 9.0% year-on-year. The overall volume and price for the first three quarters were 6.785 million tons and RMB 4,268 per ton, respectively, reflecting a volume decrease of 7.0% and a price increase of 0.5% year-on-year [3][5]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 41.8% for the first three quarters, up 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, due to lower raw material costs [3][4]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for Qingdao Beer is projected to be RMB 3.28, RMB 3.58, and RMB 3.84 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 4.9%, 9.1%, and 7.1% [4][6]. - The report adjusts the previous earnings forecast based on the disclosed sales volume, ton price, and cost changes [3][4]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected at 20.9, 19.1, and 17.9 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][6]. - The report highlights a strong brand asset and extensive distribution network, which are expected to support future growth [3][4].