Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CITIC Securities (6030 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 25.00, indicating a potential upside of 21.7% from the current price of HKD 20.55 [1][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that CITIC Securities has seen a positive turnaround in profit growth, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters, and a significant 21.9% increase in the third quarter alone, driven by policy expectations and a rebound in the stock market [1][2]. - The growth in revenue is primarily attributed to self-operated investment income, which surged by 37% year-on-year, contributing 13.7 percentage points to core revenue growth, despite a 3.8% decline in core revenue overall [2][3]. - The report anticipates continued support from policy measures aimed at stabilizing the capital market, which will benefit leading brokerage firms as market activity remains robust, with average daily trading volume in October approaching RMB 2 trillion [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters, the core revenue decreased by 3.8%, while self-operated investment income increased by 37%, leading to a 12.5% growth in core revenue in the third quarter [2][3]. - The report provides updated profit forecasts, projecting a 17.7% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024, with a target price based on a price-to-book ratio of 1.1 times for 2025 [2][3]. - Key financial metrics for CITIC Securities include: - Operating income for 2024E is projected at RMB 64,941 million, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1% [5][8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 23,174 million in 2024E, reflecting a 17.7% increase compared to the previous year [5][8]. - Total assets are forecasted to grow to RMB 1,704,120 million by 2024E, representing a 30.2% increase [5][8].
中信证券：3季度盈利增速转正，上调盈利预测和目标价