Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the company, Kaisheng New Energy (1108 HK) [4][12]. Core Views - The significant drop in photovoltaic glass prices has led to an expansion of losses for the company, with Q3 revenue reported at 716 million RMB, a year-on-year decline of 63% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 54%. The net loss attributable to shareholders was 193 million RMB, marking a quarter-on-quarter increase of 298% [1][3]. - The industry continues to face production cuts due to insufficient demand, resulting in record low glass prices. Despite ongoing reductions in production capacity, the market has not yet seen a significant recovery in demand, leading to continued inventory accumulation [2][3]. - The report anticipates potential supply-side reforms that could accelerate industry clearing and price recovery, although the effectiveness of such policies remains uncertain [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company is expected to report a revenue of 4.59 billion RMB, a decrease of 30.4% year-on-year. The net profit is projected to be a loss of 319 million RMB, with an EPS of -0.49 RMB [5][14]. - The company’s gross margin has reached a new low of -18.8%, with a significant increase in various expense ratios compared to the previous year [1][5]. Market Conditions - The photovoltaic glass market has seen a continuous decline in prices, with a 22% drop in the average price of 2.0 mm glass in Q3. The report notes that the industry has reduced production capacity by 9% compared to the peak in June [2][3]. - The report suggests that while supply and demand may soon reach a balance, the extent and duration of inventory reduction remain uncertain due to seasonal demand fluctuations and ongoing expansion plans by leading companies [2][3]. Valuation Adjustments - The loss forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been revised from 41 million RMB and 64 million RMB to 319 million RMB and 98 million RMB, respectively. However, due to expectations of supply-side reforms and an overall increase in market valuations, the valuation benchmark has been adjusted from 0.43 times to 0.53 times the book value [3][5].
凯盛新能：光伏玻璃价格大跌导致亏损扩大，维持中性