美国三季度GDP数据：经济稳健增长，美联储仍可继续谨慎降息

Economic Growth - The Q3 2024 GDP growth rate is 2.8% on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, slightly below the 3.0% market expectation, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7% and a nominal growth of 4.7%[2][9] - Consumer spending increased at an annualized rate of 3.7%, up from 2.8% in the previous quarter, contributing 2.46 percentage points to GDP growth[10][22] - Government spending grew at an annualized rate of 5.0%, contributing 0.85 percentage points to GDP, with defense spending alone adding 0.51 percentage points[3][10] Inflation and Monetary Policy - PCE inflation decreased from 2.5% to 1.5%, while core PCE inflation fell from 2.8% to 2.2%, indicating a downward trend in price growth[2][10] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in both November and December, totaling a 100 basis point reduction for the year, although risks of inflation resurgence may affect this outlook[4][16][17] Investment Trends - Private investment growth slowed to 0.3% from 8.3%, with residential and construction investments declining by 5.1% and 4.0%, respectively[10][22] - Equipment investment showed strong performance with an annualized growth rate of 11.1%, driven by increases in transportation and computer-related equipment[3][10] Consumer Behavior - Real disposable income growth declined from 2.4% to 1.6%, and the personal savings rate fell from 5.2% to 4.8%, which may hinder future consumption growth despite current strong spending levels[4][10] - The overall consumer spending remains robust, supported by stable wage growth and government transfer payments, despite the depletion of excess savings[19][22]