青岛啤酒：需求疲软业绩短期承压，静待需求修复

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to Qingdao Beer, with a target price of 76.34 CNY, compared to the last closing price of 68.51 CNY [1]. Core Views - The report indicates that Qingdao Beer is experiencing short-term pressure on performance due to weak demand, but anticipates a recovery in demand in the future [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenues of 28.959 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 6.52%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.990 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.67% [1]. - The report highlights that the beer industry faced challenges in Q3 2024 due to adverse weather and weak consumer spending, leading to a decline in sales volume [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Qingdao Beer are as follows: - 2023A: 33.937 billion CNY - 2024E: 32.011 billion CNY (down 5.67%) - 2025E: 32.689 billion CNY (up 2.12%) - 2026E: 33.180 billion CNY (up 1.50%) [3]. - Net profit projections are: - 2023A: 4.268 billion CNY - 2024E: 4.372 billion CNY (up 2.43%) - 2025E: 4.738 billion CNY (up 8.39%) - 2026E: 5.025 billion CNY (up 6.05%) [3]. - The report also provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates: - 2023A: 3.14 CNY - 2024E: 3.20 CNY - 2025E: 3.47 CNY - 2026E: 3.68 CNY [3]. Cost and Profitability - The report notes that the cost per ton for the first three quarters of 2024 was 2,486 CNY, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year, with Q3 2024 cost per ton at 2,388 CNY, down 2.2% year-on-year [1]. - Gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 41.76%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 2024 gross margin at 42.12%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The net profit margin for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 17.72%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 2024 net profit margin was 15.85%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [1].