2024-10-31 09:16Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for BYD (002594) [5] Core Insights - BYD's Q3 2024 performance shows revenue of 502.25 billion yuan, up 18.94% year-on-year, and a net profit of 25.24 billion yuan, also up 18.12% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [5] - The cash flow concerns from Q2 have eased, with operating cash flow of 42.1 billion yuan in Q3, a significant increase from the previous quarter [5] - Total vehicle sales reached 1.135 million units, with a net profit per vehicle of 9,300 yuan, and a gross margin improvement of 3.2 percentage points [5] - The transition from "oil-electric parity" to "electric cheaper than oil" is underway, with a focus on smart technology as a new growth driver [5] - Future product launches and international expansion are expected to contribute significantly to sales and profitability in 2024-2025 [5] Financial Summary - For 2024, total revenue is projected at 786.76 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 30.6% [6] - Net profit for 2024 is estimated at 38.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.5% [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 13.17 yuan for 2024, increasing to 19.98 yuan by 2026 [6] - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in gross margin, with projections of 19.9% for 2024 and 20.1% for 2026 [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted upwards to 1,028.1 billion yuan and 1,194.6 billion yuan, respectively [5] - Net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have also been increased to 53.41 billion yuan and 58.13 billion yuan, respectively [5] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to be 23 for 2024, decreasing to 15 by 2026 [5]