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中际旭创:2024年三季报业绩点评:业绩高增,光模块龙头受益AI大发展

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, reflecting its strong position in the data communication sector and technological competitiveness [2][5] Core Views - The company reported significant revenue and net profit growth in Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 17.313 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 146.26%, and net profit reaching 3.753 billion yuan, up 189.59% [1] - The introduction of high-margin products like 800G modules has boosted the company's profitability, with a gross margin of 33.32% and a net margin of 22.36% in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the rapid development of AI, with increasing demand for high-speed optical modules, particularly 800G and 1.6T products [1][2] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 25.724 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 140.01%, and net profit is expected to reach 5.552 billion yuan, up 155.45% [2][4] - The EPS for 2024/2025/2026 is forecasted to be 4.95/8.11/9.34 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28.97/17.70/15.36 [2][4] - The global optical module market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11% from 2022 to 2027, reaching over 20 billion USD by 2027, with the company well-positioned to capture market share due to its technological leadership [2] Industry and Market Position - The company is a leader in the optical module industry, with a stable market share and a first-mover advantage in high-speed products like 800G and 1.6T modules [2] - The AI-driven demand for high-speed optical modules is expected to continue growing, with the company benefiting from its strong R&D capabilities and customer base [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain high profitability and growth momentum as AI development accelerates, with further adoption of 800G and 1.6T products [1][2] - The report predicts continued revenue and profit growth for the company, driven by the increasing demand for high-speed optical modules in AI and data center applications [2][4]