2024年第四季度零售行业展望——促消费政策持续发力，消费空间将进一步释放

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the retail industry in 2024, emphasizing that it is a "Consumption Promotion Year" with ongoing policies aimed at stimulating consumer spending [20][21]. Core Insights - The retail industry in China has experienced steady growth in 2024, but the overall growth rate is declining. The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 35.36 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, which is a decrease of 2.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3][6]. - Consumer confidence remains low, with the consumer confidence index fluctuating between 85 and 90, indicating insufficient consumer willingness to spend [13][16]. - The online retail sector continues to grow, with physical goods online retail sales increasing by 7.9% year-on-year, accounting for 25.7% of total retail sales [8][24]. Industry Overview - The retail market is facing challenges, with approximately 65% of surveyed companies reporting a decline in revenue and 59% experiencing a drop in net profit in the first half of 2024. The department store sector is particularly struggling, with 72% of department stores reporting a decrease in revenue [24][25]. - The government has introduced various consumption policies to stimulate the market, including a 300 billion yuan special bond fund to support large-scale equipment updates and the replacement of consumer goods [20][21]. Consumer Spending and Income - In the first three quarters of 2024, the per capita disposable income of residents was 30,900 yuan, with a nominal year-on-year growth of 5.2%. However, the actual growth rate has slowed down compared to the previous year [13][14]. - The per capita consumption expenditure was 20,600 yuan, with a nominal year-on-year growth of 5.6%, indicating a recovery in consumer spending despite a decline in growth rate [13][14]. Policy Environment - The report highlights that 2024 is designated as a "Consumption Promotion Year," with policies aimed at fostering new consumption patterns and stabilizing traditional consumption [20][21]. - Key policies include measures to support the elderly economy, promote service consumption, and encourage the replacement of old consumer goods [20][21]. Profitability - The profitability of the retail industry is under pressure, with overall profits declining in the first half of 2024. However, there is an expectation of improvement as policy effects are realized and companies adapt through optimization and transformation [23][24]. - The report notes that the department store sector remains particularly weak, with many companies reporting significant revenue declines and some even closing stores [24][25].