Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the company, Datang New Energy (1798 HK), with a target price of HKD 1.92, indicating a potential downside of 13.9% from the current price of HKD 2.23 [2][8]. Core Views - The company's Q3 earnings were impacted by weak wind power generation, resulting in a 46% year-on-year decline in profit to RMB 110 million. The total profit for the first three quarters decreased by 17% year-on-year to RMB 1.87 billion, reaching 77% of the annual forecast [1][2]. - The total power generation in Q3 saw a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, with wind power generation decreasing by 4.8% and photovoltaic generation increasing by 33.1%. The weak earnings were primarily due to lower wind speeds this year [1][2]. - The company's net debt-to-equity ratio improved to 133% in the first three quarters, down from 150% at the end of 2023, with expectations for a further decline to 143% by the end of 2024 [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 total revenue slightly decreased by 1% year-on-year to RMB 2.46 billion, while gross profit fell by 24.5% to RMB 520 million, leading to a gross margin drop of 17 percentage points to 21% [1][4]. - The company's net profit for Q3 was RMB 161 million, down 45.6% year-on-year, and the nine-month net profit was RMB 1.87 billion, a decrease of 17% [4][5]. Capacity and Generation Forecast - The report maintains forecasts for new wind and solar installations at 1.8 GW, 2.1 GW, and 2.5 GW for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2][5]. - The expected total installed capacity by the end of 2024 is projected to be 15,418 MW, with wind power capacity at 12,981 MW and solar capacity at 2,438 MW [5]. Valuation - The current valuation is approximately 7 times the 2025 earnings per share, slightly above the reasonable level, with the report indicating that valuation improvements are outpacing earnings recovery [2][6].
大唐新能源：3季度业绩仍受制于风力发电偏弱