Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised from HKD 20.5 to HKD 30.5, indicating a potential upside of 18.2% from the current closing price of HKD 25.80 [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant earnings resilience, with a net profit growth of 116.7% year-on-year for the first three quarters, slightly exceeding the previously forecasted range of 95-115% [1][2]. - The new business value growth rate of 79.2% year-on-year is leading among peers, reflecting strong performance in the insurance sector [2]. - Investment income has seen a notable increase, with a total investment return rate of 6.8%, up 4.5 percentage points year-on-year, outperforming industry peers [2]. - The company is optimizing its premium structure, although it still relies heavily on bank insurance channels, with a 1.9% year-on-year increase in premium income [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 26,044 million, representing a 198.9% increase compared to 2023 [5][10]. - The total revenue for 2024 is estimated at RMB 140,014 million, reflecting a significant recovery from a 33.8% decline in 2023 [5][10]. - The company’s investment assets are expected to grow by 20.2% in 2024, contributing to overall financial stability [11]. - The report highlights a projected return on average equity (ROAE) of 25.2% for 2024, indicating strong profitability [11]. Business Metrics - The company’s new business value is expected to reach RMB 5,680 million in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 87.8% [7][11]. - The insurance service revenue is projected to decline slightly by 3.0% in 2024, but investment income is expected to rebound significantly [6][10]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 135.4 billion, with a daily trading volume of 16.92 million shares [4].
新华保险：盈利具较高弹性，新业务价值增速领先同业，但2025年面临高基数