Weichai Power(02338) 交银国际证券·2024-11-01 00:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Weichai Power (2338 HK) with a target price of HKD 18.60, indicating a potential upside of 57.9% from the current price of HKD 11.78 [1][3][8]. Core Insights - Weichai Power's gross margin improved against the trend in Q3 2024, with a gross margin of 22.1%, exceeding expectations due to a decline in raw material prices. Despite a decrease in revenue and net profit, the performance was better than the overall heavy truck wholesale sales decline [1][2]. - The report highlights a recovery in logistics demand for heavy trucks in Q4 2024, driven by new policies supporting the replacement of old vehicles, particularly in major cities like Shanghai and Beijing [2][3]. - The valuation remains attractive, with projected P/E ratios of 7.8x for 2024 and 6.8x for 2025, alongside dividend yields of 7.2% and 7.9% respectively [3][5]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, Weichai Power is expected to generate revenue of RMB 235.46 billion, a year-on-year growth of 10.1%. Net profit is projected at RMB 11.84 billion, reflecting a growth of 31.3% [5][9]. - The report outlines a significant increase in net profit from RMB 9.01 billion in 2023 to RMB 11.84 billion in 2024, with earnings per share expected to rise from RMB 1.05 to RMB 1.38 [5][9]. - The company’s gross profit margin is anticipated to improve from 18.7% in 2022 to 21.1% in 2024, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [9].