FII(601138) 天风证券·2024-11-01 01:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a 6-month target price of 24.84 yuan [6] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 revenue reached 1702.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.53%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.4 billion yuan, up 1.24% year-on-year [1] - AI-driven growth continues to be a key driver, with AI server revenue increasing by 228% year-on-year, accounting for 45% of total server revenue in Q1-Q3 2024 [2] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the strong demand for GB200 servers, with shipments expected to begin in late Q4 2024 [3] - Cloud computing revenue grew by 71% year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2024, driven by AI-related capital expenditures from major cloud service providers [4] Financial Performance - The company's Q3 2024 gross margin was 7%, impacted by product mix changes, while operating expenses decreased slightly [2] - Excluding the impact of exchange rate fluctuations, net profit attributable to the parent company would have increased by 11% year-on-year [2] - The report revised the 2024 net profit forecast downward to 23.5 billion yuan due to exchange rate impacts but raised the 2025 and 2026 forecasts to 33 billion yuan and 39.2 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting the expected growth from GB200 server shipments [5] Industry Outlook - Global cloud service providers are expected to increase capital expenditures significantly in 2024, with AI-related spending projected to grow nearly 100% year-on-year [4] - The company holds a leading position in the cloud computing server market, with its products accounting for nearly 50% of cloud service provider revenue in 2023 [4] - The network communication business is benefiting from increased demand for high-bandwidth equipment, with 400/800G switch revenue growing by 128% year-on-year in Q3 2024 [2] Competitive Advantages - The company has a strong vertical integration capability, providing key components, servers, and AI data center solutions, which enhances its competitiveness in the AI server market [3] - It has established long-term partnerships with leading cloud service providers, securing a dominant position in AI server and memory supply [4] - The company is expanding its global footprint, with a major GB200 server production base under construction in Mexico [3]