药明康德：三季度业绩回暖，但美生物法案不确定性未除

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 48.00 [3][11]. Core Insights - WuXi AppTec's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 decreased by 6.2% year-on-year to RMB 27.70 billion, but excluding COVID-19 project revenue, it increased by 4.6% [1]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 19.1% year-on-year to RMB 6.53 billion, with Non-IFRS adjusted net profit down 10.1% to RMB 6.68 billion, although the decline was less severe than in the first half of the year [1]. - The chemical business showed signs of recovery in the third quarter, leading to slightly better-than-expected performance [1]. - The TIDES business revenue surged by 71.0% year-on-year in the first three quarters, driven by increased demand for weight-loss drug development [1]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2022 was RMB 39.36 billion, with a projected revenue of RMB 40.13 billion for 2024, and expected growth to RMB 49.35 billion by 2026 [2][8]. - Shareholder net profit for 2022 was RMB 8.81 billion, with a forecast of RMB 9.98 billion for 2024 and RMB 11.94 billion for 2026 [2][8]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be RMB 3.43 in 2024, increasing to RMB 4.11 by 2026 [2][8]. Revenue Forecasts - The revenue forecast for the chemical business in 2024 has been raised to RMB 29.17 billion, with expectations of double-digit growth in 2025-2026 [1]. - TIDES business revenue is expected to grow by 60% year-on-year to RMB 5.21 billion in 2024, with further increases projected for 2025 and 2026 [1]. Market and Legislative Environment - The U.S. Biologics Bill is unlikely to be legislated within the year, but uncertainties remain as both the House and Senate versions have passed [1].