CM BANK(600036) Guolian Securities·2024-11-01 02:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's performance is steadily improving, with an enhancement in credit card asset quality [6] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 252.709 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 113.184 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.62% [6] - The company is expected to maintain a significant retail business advantage, with a projected revenue growth of 2.60% CAGR over the next three years [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q1-Q3 2024, the company's net interest income and commission income decreased by 3.07% and 16.90% year-on-year, respectively, but showed marginal improvement compared to H1 2024 [6] - The net profit growth rate for Q1-Q3 2024 increased by 0.71% compared to H1 2024, driven by interest margin business, commission income, and cost control [6] Retail Business - As of Q3 2024, the company's loan balance reached 6.76 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.70%, with retail loans showing significant growth [6] - The average yield on loans and average cost of deposits for Q1-Q3 2024 were 3.98% and 1.58%, respectively, reflecting a slight decline compared to H1 2024 [6] Wealth Management - Wealth management fee and commission income for Q1-Q3 2024 was 17.405 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.63%, but the decline rate narrowed compared to H1 2024 [6] - The company’s retail AUM reached 14.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.69% from the beginning of the year [6] Asset Quality - As of Q3 2024, the company's non-performing loan ratio was 0.94%, with a provision coverage ratio of 432.15%, indicating strong risk compensation ability [6] - The overall non-performing loan generation rate for Q1-Q3 2024 was 1.02%, stable compared to H1 2024 [6] Investment Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 333.4 billion yuan, 346.4 billion yuan, and 366.2 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profit estimates of 146.8 billion yuan, 151.1 billion yuan, and 159.5 billion yuan [6][7]