Ausun Pharm(603229) 太平洋·2024-11-01 03:44Investment Rating - Buy/Maintain rating for Aoxiang Pharmaceutical (603229) [1][2] Core Views - Q3 2024 performance slightly below market expectations, but optimistic about future contributions from approved formulations [1][2] - Revenue and profits continue to grow, with 2024 Q1-Q3 revenue and profits reaching historical highs [2] - Gross margin for Q3 2024 was 53.29%, down 3.63pct YoY and 8.90pct QoQ, while net margin was 24.86%, down 7.24pct YoY and 10.31pct QoQ [2] - The decline in Q3 margins was attributed to product mix fluctuations, increased foreign exchange losses, and reduced interest income [2] - Capacity expansion is ongoing, with new capacities expected to be released in an orderly manner [2] - Formulations are expected to enter a harvest period, creating a third growth curve [2] Financial Performance - 2024 Q1-Q3 revenue: 6.90 billion yuan (YoY +2.75%), net profit: 2.29 billion yuan (YoY +1.62%), and non-GAAP net profit: 2.13 billion yuan (YoY +0.10%) [2] - 2024 Q3 revenue: 1.98 billion yuan (YoY -2.57%), net profit: 0.49 billion yuan (YoY -24.54%), and non-GAAP net profit: 0.40 billion yuan (YoY -31.86%) [2] - Gross margin for 2024 Q1-Q3: 57.94% (YoY +0.27pct), net margin: 33.18% (YoY -0.37pct) [2] Capacity and Formulation Development - 7 workshops for API and intermediate production have completed construction, with 3 workshops already passing acceptance, 1 in trial production, and 2 awaiting equipment installation [2] - High-activity formulation and oral solid formulation workshops have completed construction and equipment installation, expected to start production in 2025 [2] - The first formulation product, Imatinib Mesylate Tablets, is expected to be approved in Europe in H2 2024 and in China in H1 2025, contributing to revenue from 2025 [2] - The company is actively developing innovative drugs, including Brozopine Sodium for ischemic stroke, which is pending Phase III clinical trials [2] Financial Forecasts - 2024/25/26 revenue forecast: 8.81/10.28/12.86 billion yuan, net profit: 2.79/3.43/4.30 billion yuan [2] - 2024/25/26 PE ratios: 26/21/17X [2] - 2024/25/26 revenue growth rates: 7.92%/16.65%/25.08%, net profit growth rates: 10.00%/22.96%/25.08% [4] - 2024/25/26 EPS: 0.34/0.41/0.52 yuan [4] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - 2024E total assets: 3.242 billion yuan, liabilities: 910 million yuan, equity: 2.331 billion yuan [5] - 2024E operating cash flow: 346 million yuan, investment cash flow: -45 million yuan, financing cash flow: -5 million yuan [5] - 2024E ROE: 11.98%, ROA: 8.62%, ROIC: 10.23% [5]