Air China(601111) 中国银河·2024-11-01 07:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Aviation (601111.SH) [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve profitability in 2024, with a projected net profit of 5.81 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 10.46 billion yuan in 2023 [7][11] - The passenger transport volume for the first three quarters of 2024 shows significant recovery, with domestic, international, and regional passenger numbers reaching 101.75 million, 12.05 million, and 3.54 million respectively, marking increases of 147.78%, 93.48%, and 83.27% compared to 2019 [2] - The company’s revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 is reported at 128.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.50% [2] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 is 6.56%, showing improvement compared to 2019 [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 141.1 billion yuan in 2023, 165.54 billion yuan in 2024, 181.94 billion yuan in 2025, and 195.90 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 166.74%, 17.32%, 9.91%, and 7.68% respectively [7][11] - The net profit forecast indicates a turnaround with expected figures of 5.81 billion yuan in 2024, 48.15 billion yuan in 2025, and 67.05 billion yuan in 2026 [7][11] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.04 yuan in 2024, 0.30 yuan in 2025, and 0.41 yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 204.48X, 24.66X, and 17.71X [7][11] Operational Insights - As of Q3 2024, the company operates a fleet of 924 aircraft, with ongoing optimization of its fleet structure [2] - The company has introduced 12 new aircraft and retired 3 during 2024 [2]