芭薇股份点评报告：毛利率下滑导致营收大增但利润略显平庸

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 49.50% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, achieving a total revenue of 471 million yuan. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 5.70% to 29.05 million yuan, reflecting a decline in overall gross margin to 26.67% compared to the same period last year [1]. - The change in customer structure has negatively impacted the gross margin, leading to a situation where revenue growth outpaced profit growth. In Q3 2024 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 205 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101.09%, while net profit rose by 57.52% to 14.31 million yuan. The gross margin for Q3 was reported at 24.76%, continuing a downward trend since Q1 [1]. - The company is actively adjusting its strategies to stabilize the declining gross margin, focusing on market dynamics and operational flexibility. Despite the increase in advertising expenses by 9.39 million yuan compared to the previous year, the company has managed to reduce the sales expense ratio year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The cosmetics OEM industry is expected to continue expanding, providing opportunities for the company to increase its market share. The report highlights the potential for growth driven by rising consumer spending in the cosmetics sector and the anticipated consolidation of the industry [1]. Financial Forecast - The company’s revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 662.48 million yuan, 790.68 million yuan, and 870.17 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 41.35%, 19.35%, and 10.05% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 41.52 million yuan, 53.71 million yuan, and 62.87 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 0.89%, 29.34%, and 17.06% respectively [3][6]. - The report anticipates the company's EPS to be 0.48 yuan, 0.63 yuan, and 0.73 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 29.13, 22.53, and 19.24, indicating a reasonable valuation level for long-term growth potential [3][6].