10月PMI逆季节性回升的信号：政策已显效，关注后续力度

Group 1: PMI Overview - The official manufacturing PMI for October is 50.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking the first return above the growth line since May this year[2] - The production index is above 50%, while the new orders index remains at the growth line, indicating a recovery in manufacturing sentiment[2] - Price indicators have shown significant upward movement, contributing to the overall PMI increase[2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Production recovery is stronger than demand, with the production index showing a notable increase, while new orders have only slightly improved[5] - The gap between production and demand is widening, which may lead to a potential increase in finished goods inventory in the future[11] - New export orders remain weak at 47.3%, reflecting ongoing pressure on exports, while imports have slightly improved to 47%[10] Group 3: Policy Impact and Future Outlook - Recent policy measures have positively impacted economic expectations and performance, with a focus on repairing balance sheets for residents and local governments[18] - Continued recovery of the real economy is contingent on further fiscal policy support to expand total demand[18] - The upcoming U.S. elections and Federal Reserve meeting are critical events that may influence domestic policy clarity and economic conditions[18]