资本市场月报（2024年11月）：关注美国大选影响，A股进入N字走势第二阶段

Group 1: Market Overview - The US dollar index strengthened in October, reflecting a narrowing of interest rate cut expectations and a resurgence of "Trump trades" [4] - A-shares and Chinese government bond rates experienced fluctuations, while the RMB slightly depreciated [4] - The upcoming US presidential election results are expected to significantly impact market dynamics, with a rising probability of a Republican sweep [4] Group 2: Investment Strategy Recommendations - High allocation is recommended for US dollar bonds, while gold, A-shares, and high-dividend strategies should be allocated moderately [6] - The A-share market is currently in a second phase of consolidation, with expectations that it will not fall below 3000 points [5] - The strategy for US stocks remains a balanced allocation, with potential shifts in style due to election outcomes [24] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Economic indicators show a slight improvement, suggesting a neutral to positive outlook for the market [19] - The market is expected to experience two phases: the first focusing on policy implementation, ending in early November, and the second on fundamental performance starting mid-November [19] Group 4: Currency and Bond Market Insights - The US dollar is expected to strengthen further, potentially reaching a core volatility range of 105-110 if the Republicans win the election [29] - US Treasury yields are anticipated to gradually decline, with a preference for medium to short-duration bonds depending on the election outcome [27]