Air China(601111) 申万宏源·2024-11-01 10:55Investment Rating - The investment rating for China National Aviation (601111) is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that China National Aviation's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 48.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.144 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.3% year-on-year [2] - The report notes strong operational data during the peak travel season, with significant recovery in both domestic and international travel demand [2] - The report adjusts the 2024 domestic ticket price growth forecast to -13% and the international recovery rate to 100%, reflecting slower-than-expected recovery in international routes and low ticket prices [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached 48.63 billion yuan, up 6.03% year-on-year, while the net profit for the first three quarters was 1.362 billion yuan, a 72.1% increase year-on-year [2][3] - The estimated passenger kilometer yield for Q3 was 0.62 yuan, a 0.33 yuan increase compared to 2019, but a 12.18% decrease compared to 2023 [2] - Q3 operating costs were 42.277 billion yuan, with a unit cost of 0.44 yuan, reflecting a 14.15% increase compared to 2019 [2] Operational Data - In Q3 2024, the overall Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) increased by 30.17% compared to 2019, while Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) rose by 28.35% [2] - Domestic ASK recovered to 157% of the 2019 level, while domestic RPK reached 154.4% [2] - International ASK and RPK showed significant recovery, with ASK at 92.02% and RPK at 89.29% of the 2019 levels, marking increases of 166% and 177.08% year-on-year, respectively [2] Fleet and Market Data - As of Q3 2024, the total fleet size of China National Aviation reached 924 aircraft, a 36% increase compared to 2019 [2] - The market capitalization of the circulating A-shares is 85.307 billion yuan, with a closing price of 7.33 yuan [4][5]