CEA(600115) 申万宏源·2024-11-01 10:55Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Eastern Airlines (600115) [5] Core Views - The third quarter of 2024 saw a net profit of 2.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 28.18%, while operating revenue increased by 6.23% to 38.386 billion yuan, aligning with expectations [5] - The airline's operational data showed significant growth in passenger demand during the peak travel season, with overall ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) up 13.69% compared to 2019, and RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) up 16.62% compared to 2019 [5] - Domestic operations showed a slower recovery in passenger load factors, while international operations have expanded significantly, with international ASK recovering to 100.69% of 2019 levels, a 179.85% increase year-on-year [5] - The fleet size reached 790 aircraft, a 12% increase compared to 2019 [5] - The report adjusts the 2024 domestic ticket price growth forecast to -13% due to lower-than-expected international recovery and weak ticket pricing [5] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 3.84 yuan - Market capitalization: 56.139 billion yuan - Price-to-book ratio: 4.3 [2][3] Financial Data - Q3 2024 operating revenue: 38.386 billion yuan, up 6.23% year-on-year - Q3 2024 net profit: 2.63 billion yuan, down 28.18% year-on-year - Total revenue for the first three quarters: 102.585 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year [6][8] Earnings Forecast - 2024E net profit forecast: -1.675 billion yuan - 2025E net profit forecast: 4.654 billion yuan - 2026E net profit forecast: 8.143 billion yuan [6][8]