中国中免：海南市场销售承压，口岸免税大幅增长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 43.02 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 15.4%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.92 billion yuan, down 24.7% year-on-year [2][6] - The sales in the Hainan market are under pressure, while the sales from duty-free shops at ports have significantly increased [4][6] - The company's gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 32.0%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased promotional efforts [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 11.76 billion yuan, down 21.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 640 million yuan, down 52.5% year-on-year [2][6] - The total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 43.02 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.92 billion yuan [6] - The company expects revenues for 2024-2026 to be 58.19 billion yuan, 64.93 billion yuan, and 71.87 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 5.05 billion yuan, 5.99 billion yuan, and 6.83 billion yuan [6][7] Market Analysis - The Hainan market is experiencing a decline in sales, with duty-free shopping amounts dropping by 35.6% year-on-year in Q3 2024 [6] - The number of duty-free shoppers and the average spending per shopper in Hainan also decreased by 27.2% and 11.6%, respectively [6] - Conversely, sales at duty-free shops in Beijing and Shanghai airports increased by over 140% and nearly 60% year-on-year, respectively, due to a recovery in inbound and outbound passenger flow [6] Cost and Profitability - The company's selling and administrative expenses for Q3 2024 were 2.16 billion yuan and 480 million yuan, respectively, with selling expense ratio and administrative expense ratio increasing by 0.6 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 5.4%, down 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [6] Future Outlook - The company maintains a strong competitive advantage, leading to the sustained "Buy" rating despite current market pressures [6]