Guolian Securities·2024-11-01 13:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank (601658) is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights significant improvements in the effectiveness of the agency fee rate reduction and an excellent credit allocation structure [4] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 260.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 75.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.22% [6] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q1-Q3 2024, the company's revenue growth rate slightly increased by 0.19 percentage points compared to H1 2024, mainly due to marginal improvements in the growth rate of non-interest income [6] - The company achieved non-interest income of 20.715 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.65%, but the decline rate narrowed compared to H1 2024 by 4.06 percentage points [6] Cost Control - The growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.73 percentage points compared to H1 2024, primarily due to effective cost control measures [6] Credit Structure and Asset Quality - As of Q3 2024, the company's loan balance was 8.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.46%, with a quarterly net increase of 120.61 billion yuan in Q3 2024 [6] - The non-performing loan ratio, attention ratio, and overdue ratio were 0.86%, 0.91%, and 1.11% respectively at the end of Q3 2024, indicating stable asset quality [6] Future Outlook - The report projects the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 345.6 billion, 360 billion, and 384.3 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.90%, 4.16%, and 6.75% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 88.37 billion, 92.09 billion, and 97.43 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 2.44%, 4.21%, and 5.80% respectively [7]