CTG DUTY-FREE(SH:601888)2024-11-01 13:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 43.02 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.92 billion RMB, down 25% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in revenue was primarily attributed to poor performance in the Hainan market, with Q3 revenue dropping to 11.76 billion RMB, a 22% year-on-year decrease, which was worse than expected [1]. - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters was 32.57%, a year-on-year increase of 1.0 percentage points, but Q3 gross margin fell to 32.0%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year due to weak demand [1]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its supply chain and expanding overseas markets, having introduced 165 brands in the first three quarters, with over 40% being domestic brands [2]. - The recent policy allowing domestic duty-free shopping in city stores is expected to create a market increment of 100-300 billion RMB, providing new growth opportunities for the company [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to have revenues of 56.38 billion RMB in 2024, a decrease of 16.52% from 2023, with net profits expected to be 4.94 billion RMB, down 26.44% [3]. - The diluted EPS is forecasted to be 2.39 RMB in 2024, with a PE ratio of 28.44 [3].