人大常委会前瞻：财政八问

Group 1: Debt Management and Fiscal Policy - The current scale of hidden debt is estimated to be over 7.5 trillion yuan, with a significant portion expected to be addressed through government debt replacement[5] - The total debt resolution scale for this round is anticipated to be within 7.5 trillion yuan, primarily through government debt replacement methods[5] - The government has arranged 2.2 trillion yuan and 1.2 trillion yuan in debt limits for 2023 and 2024 respectively, aimed at resolving local debt risks and clearing corporate arrears[25] Group 2: Economic Impact and Debt Structure - There is a divergence in market views regarding the economic stimulus effect of fiscal debt resolution, with concerns that merely replacing debt may not significantly boost economic growth[14] - The broad fiscal deficit rate is projected to decrease from approximately 11% in 2023 to 7.5% in 2024, indicating a potential reduction in fiscal stimulus impact[49] - The upcoming debt replacement is expected to primarily target debts maturing before 2027, which could alleviate local government repayment pressures and enhance available fiscal resources[14] Group 3: Debt Tools and Approvals - The distinction between replacing debts with central government bonds versus local government bonds is crucial, as it affects the leverage ratios and fiscal discipline of both levels of government[19] - The total available government debt limit includes approximately 8.283 billion yuan for central government bonds and 11.17 billion yuan for local government bonds, indicating limited room for additional borrowing[31] - Certain new debt limits require approval from the National People's Congress Standing Committee, particularly in response to economic pressures[40]