广发证券：低基数下投资收益高增驱动公司业绩修复

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company's performance recovery is driven by high growth in investment income from a low base [3]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 19.137 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.24%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.764 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.43% [2][5]. - The report highlights significant growth in investment income, with a year-on-year increase of 114.7% for the first three quarters of 2024 [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 7.359 billion, a year-on-year increase of 54.08% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.76% [2][5]. - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 2.402 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 88.90% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 14.94% [2][5]. - The weighted average ROE for the first three quarters of 2024 was 5.26%, an increase of 0.45 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2][5]. Business Segments - The brokerage business generated a net commission income of 3.99 billion for the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%, accounting for 22.4% of the main business revenue [5]. - The asset management business achieved a net commission income of 5.08 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 15.7%, primarily due to a decline in fees from actively managed equity funds [5]. - The investment business reported income of 5.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 114.7%, making up 33.6% of the main business revenue [6]. Future Outlook - The report projects revenue for 2024-2026 to be 26.2 billion, 27.2 billion, and 28.7 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.5%, 3.6%, and 5.5% [6][7]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 8.9 billion, 9.9 billion, and 11 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.2%, 10.9%, and 11.0% [6][7]. - The report anticipates continued performance recovery driven by a rebound in the equity market and new fund issuance [6].