交运行业一周天地汇：大选前原油贸易受压制，出口链跨境物流交易拥挤度下降

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for companies in the shipping sector, specifically recommending COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [6][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that oil trade is currently inactive ahead of the elections, but a potential catalyst for tanker demand is expected post-election, particularly if Trump is re-elected, which may lead to increased sanctions on Iran and a subsequent decrease in Iranian oil production [8][9]. - The shipping sector is seeing significant profit improvements, particularly for companies like Sumec and Xiamen Xiangyu, with expectations for further stimulation from currency and ship prices [10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the upcoming U.S. election results and potential tariff implications on shipping rates [13]. Summary by Sections Oil Transportation - VLCC rates fell by 13% to $28,834 per day, with the Pacific market experiencing a 12% decline due to a lack of cargo [10][11]. - The report notes that the market is facing a significant drop in transparency and increased panic among shipowners due to private transactions [10]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on rates in the coming weeks due to an oversupply of capacity in the Pacific [10][12]. Shipping Rates - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) decreased by 4.8% to 1,378 points, with various ship types experiencing declines [12]. - The report indicates that iron ore shipments have improved, particularly from Australia, which may support rate recovery in the upcoming weeks [12]. Container Shipping - The SCFI index recorded a 5.4% increase to 2,303.44 points, with European routes seeing a significant rise in rates [13]. - The report warns of potential price increases in the container shipping market due to upcoming U.S. election results and tariff expectations [13]. Air Transportation - The report highlights the expansion of visa-free travel for certain countries starting November 8, 2024, which may boost international travel and airport performance [18]. - Recommendations include airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines, focusing on the recovery of air travel demand [18]. Road and Rail Transportation - The report recommends companies like Anhui Expressway and Daqin Railway, noting a 1.35% increase in rail freight and a 1.85% increase in highway truck traffic [19]. - The report emphasizes the continuous improvement in the operational quality and profitability of railway companies [19].