美国10月劳动数据解读：劳动数据的“噪音”应不影响货币政策路径

Employment Data Summary - Non-farm payrolls increased by only 12,000 in October, significantly below the Bloomberg median forecast of 100,000, primarily impacted by hurricanes and strikes[2] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.14%, matching expectations, while the labor force participation rate slightly decreased to 62.6%[2][8] - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.37% month-on-month and 3.99% year-on-year, indicating a resilient wage growth despite the employment slowdown[2][28] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is showing signs of gradual weakening, with permanent unemployment rising, but supply-side pressures are easing[4][9] - Strikes accounted for a direct loss of 41,600 jobs in October, with Boeing and other companies contributing significantly to this figure[3][18] - Job openings fell to 7.443 million in September, continuing a downward trend, reflecting a slowing demand for labor[13] Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The market's reaction to the disappointing non-farm payroll data was muted, with major stock indices rising despite the weak employment figures[4][9] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious approach, with a baseline prediction of two 25 basis point rate cuts in November and December[4][9] - The bond market indicates a need for caution regarding rapid rate cuts, influenced by upcoming election results[4][9]