专题研究报告：Gartner曲线的新兴技术投资启示

Gartner Curve and Technology Investment - Gartner Curve divides technology development into five stages: Technology Trigger, Peak of Inflated Expectations, Trough of Disillusionment, Slope of Enlightenment, and Plateau of Productivity[3][13][14] - Emerging technologies often follow a "slow-fast-slow" growth pattern, with a long Technology Trigger phase and a relatively short Peak of Inflated Expectations phase[3][15] - The Trough of Disillusionment is a critical phase for market self-regulation and resource reallocation, where only companies with true innovation potential survive[21] Investment Strategies Based on Gartner Curve - During the Technology Trigger phase, focus on short-term trading and thematic investments due to high market volatility[56] - In the Peak of Inflated Expectations, shift focus to technologies with tangible product applications rather than pure concept炒作[57] - The Trough of Disillusionment is the optimal time for long-term strategic investments, as valuations are low and true innovators emerge[58] - The Slope of Enlightenment is the best period for investment, as technologies gain market validation and enter stable growth[60] Emerging Technology Trends - Generative AI is expected to surpass the Peak of Inflated Expectations, with global AI industry projected to reach $1.3 trillion by 2032[65] - 6G technology is anticipated to revolutionize immersive AR/VR experiences and real-time AI interactions, with standardization expected by 2030[67][68] - Cybersecurity technologies, including AI TRiSM and Cybersecurity Mesh Architecture, are gaining traction due to increasing cyber threats[70] Short-term Market Dynamics - The tech sector remains a key trading focus, with the科创50指数 and创业板指 rising by 10.3% and 7.3% respectively from September to October[71] - Policy support and liquidity improvements are driving market sentiment, with并购重组 and回购 themes boosting tech stocks[71]