宏观和大类资产配置周报：一揽子增量政策效果有望逐步显现

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for October is reported at 50.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from September, marking a return to the expansion zone for the first time since May 2024[1][2][20]. - New orders index stands at 50.0%, up 0.1 percentage points from September, while the production index is at 52.0%, reflecting a growth of 0.8 percentage points[2][20]. Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a 6-month reverse repurchase operation of 500 billion yuan in October, with a net long-term fund injection exceeding 600 billion yuan for the month, indicating a supportive monetary policy stance[1][22]. - The net purchase of government bonds amounted to 200 billion yuan in October, further supporting liquidity in the market[22]. Asset Performance - The CSI 300 index fell by 1.68% this week, while the CSI 500 index saw a slight increase of 0.38%[1][33]. - The yield on 10-year government bonds decreased by 1 basis point to 2.14%, with active futures rising by 0.29%[1][13]. Investment Strategy - Recommended asset allocation order is: equities > commodities > bonds > cash, reflecting a positive outlook on equities due to the implementation of incremental policies[2][3]. - Risks include slow global inflation decline, rapid economic downturns in Europe and the US, and complex international situations[2].