牧高笛：24Q3业绩承压，短期品牌业务费用投放较大

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [3][5][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.08 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.5%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 90 million yuan, down 16.0% year-on-year [3][4]. - The domestic consumption environment remains under pressure, impacting the camping industry and the company's OEM business due to downstream inventory destocking [3][4]. - The brand business experienced a significant revenue decline in Q3 2024, with a revenue of 250 million yuan, down 16.8% year-on-year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company's revenue from its proprietary brand business was 610 million yuan, a decrease of 8.9% year-on-year, with specific declines in segments such as DaMu camping gear and XiaoMu outdoor clothing [4][5]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 28.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improved efficiency in the OEM business [5][6]. - The net profit margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 8.6%, down 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting increased expenses related to brand and operational upgrades [5][6]. Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 100 million yuan, 110 million yuan, and 120 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 19, 18, and 16 [5][6]. - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are set at 1.47 billion yuan, 1.60 billion yuan, and 1.77 billion yuan, indicating a gradual recovery in growth rates [6][9].