计算机行业专题研究：第三季度盈利增速同比转正，政策支持下业绩有望持续改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Outperform" rating for the computer industry [2][4]. Core Insights - The overall revenue of the computer industry for the first three quarters of 2024 reached approximately 849.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.58%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was about 16.4 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 27.78% year-on-year. The profit growth rate is notably lower than the revenue growth rate, but there is a clear trend of improvement quarter by quarter [5][9]. - The report highlights four main investment themes: AI, trusted computing, industrial digitalization, and data elements, which are expected to provide significant development opportunities for the computer industry [2][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Analysis for Q1-Q3 2024 - The computer industry faced profit pressure in the first three quarters of 2024, with a total revenue of approximately 849.8 billion yuan and a net profit of about 16.4 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year decline of 27.78% [5][9]. - In Q3 2024, the industry saw a revenue total of about 302.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.51%, while net profit reached approximately 7.4 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 27.20% [19][20]. 2. Sub-industry Performance Summary - The server segment showed high growth, with significant revenue increases. For instance, leading companies like Inspur and Unisplendour reported revenue growth rates of 72.83% and 6.56%, respectively [26]. - The industrial software sector also experienced rapid growth, with an overall revenue increase of 9.89% in Q1-Q3 2024 [52]. - Conversely, the basic software segment faced continuous revenue decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.41% [28][31]. - The network security sector continued to face pressure, with a significant number of companies reporting revenue declines, particularly in the case of companies like Electric Security, which saw a drop of 42.33% [33][37]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in high-growth sectors, particularly those benefiting from recent digital economy policies and increased IT demand due to capital expenditure [5][19]. - Specific companies to watch include Unisplendour, Zhongke Shuguang, Kingsoft, Nasda, and others that are positioned well within the industry [5][19].