Vanward(002543) 申万宏源·2024-11-03 11:41Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating [6] Core Views - Q3 performance fell short of expectations with revenue of 1.423 billion yuan, up 5.93% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 99 million yuan, down 32.14% YoY [4] - The company is expected to benefit from the old-for-new policy, particularly in the kitchen appliance sector, with significant growth in retail sales for products like range hoods and gas stoves [5] - Gross margin remained stable at 32.78%, but net profit margin declined by 4.00 percentage points due to a significant drop in fair value change income [6] Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first three quarters reached 5.234 billion yuan, up 18.61% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 454 million yuan, down 18.83% YoY [4] - Gross margin for the first three quarters was 32.78%, a slight decrease of 0.47 percentage points YoY [6] - Net profit margin for the first three quarters was 8.67%, down 4.00 percentage points YoY [6] Market and Industry Analysis - The old-for-new policy, effective from July 2024, includes subsidies for kitchen appliances like water heaters, stoves, and range hoods, significantly boosting retail sales [5] - Retail sales for range hoods in the first nine months of 2024 reached 23.1 billion yuan, up 4.5% YoY, while gas stoves saw a 6.3% increase to 13.1 billion yuan [5] - In September 2024, retail sales for electric and gas water heaters surged by 35.7% and 49.6% respectively, driven by the policy [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the old-for-new policy, especially during the Q4 shopping season, including the Double 11 promotion [5] - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted, with expected revenue growth of 11.2%, 9.7%, and 9.3% respectively, and net profit growth of 0.8%, 13.6%, and 12.4% [6][8]