摩根士丹利：经济没有出现负增长，不会走回地产泡沫老路 - 副本

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the real estate market and related fiscal policies, indicating that there will be no return to the previous real estate bubble [6]. Core Insights - Current economic policies are unlikely to shift significantly, with the government primarily using increased debt issuance and interest rate cuts to mitigate pressures from the real estate downturn [2][6]. - Local governments face challenges in infrastructure construction and debt management, including declining project returns and a significant drop in land sale revenues from 8.5 trillion in 2021 to 2.2 trillion this year [3]. - Special local bonds are being allocated more to developed regions to expedite existing projects, with relaxed return requirements to stimulate infrastructure investment [4]. - Industrial investment growth has slowed, primarily due to reduced bank loan guidance and tax subsidy investigations, highlighting an issue of overcapacity rather than insufficient demand [5]. - The real estate market is expected to remain cautious, with inventory in first-tier cities gradually improving by the third quarter of next year [6]. - The People's Bank of China emphasizes improving the efficiency of existing loans rather than pushing for increased loan growth, particularly affecting small and micro enterprises [7]. Summary by Sections Economic Policy and Trends - The likelihood of a significant policy shift is low, with government debt issuance increasing from 4 trillion to 9.2 trillion this year and cumulative interest rate cuts of 195 basis points [2]. - Local governments are strictly controlling new debt, especially for low-quality projects, and enhancing oversight through audits [2]. Infrastructure and Debt Management - Local governments are facing challenges such as declining project returns and a significant drop in land sale revenues, which have impacted local finances [3]. - The issuance of special local bonds has been more focused on developed areas to support existing projects, leading to a slight recovery in infrastructure investment [4]. Industrial Investment - Industrial investment growth has slowed from an initial 9% at the beginning of the year, primarily due to reduced bank loan guidance and tax subsidy investigations [5]. - The current situation indicates a greater issue of overcapacity compared to demand insufficiency, necessitating adjustments in financial support [5]. Real Estate Market Outlook - The real estate market and related fiscal policies are expected to remain cautious, with inventory levels in first-tier cities improving gradually [6]. - Governments will continue to use special bonds to support the market without inflating the real estate bubble [6]. Banking and Financial Guidance - The People's Bank of China is focusing on enhancing the efficiency of existing loans rather than increasing loan growth, which has implications for small and micro enterprises [7]. - This shift in guidance is expected to create short-term economic pressure but aims for higher quality and efficiency in the long run [7].