石油化工行业周报：前三季度成品油需求负增长，成品油市场或将加速洗牌

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating potential investment opportunities in the sector [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a negative growth in refined oil demand for the first three quarters of 2024, with total refined oil consumption in China reaching 289 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 0.21%. Gasoline consumption increased by 3.33% to 115 million tons, while diesel consumption fell by 5.05% to 144 million tons [2][4][7]. - The report anticipates a restructuring of the refined oil market due to declining demand, with smaller refineries facing potential elimination as stricter consumption tax regulations come into effect [2][11]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a decline in oil prices, with Brent crude oil futures closing at $73.10 per barrel, a decrease of 3.88% from the previous week. The report suggests that oil prices may continue to fluctuate within a mid-high range due to OPEC production cuts and shale oil cost support [2][19]. - The refining sector is seeing an increase in overseas refined oil crack spreads, with Singapore's refining margin rising to $10.52 per barrel, indicating improved profitability for refiners [2][19]. - The polyester sector shows mixed performance, with PTA profitability increasing while polyester filament profitability is declining, suggesting a need for close monitoring of demand changes [2][13]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices have decreased, with a current price of $73.10 per barrel, reflecting a 3.88% decline. The report notes a stable number of drilling rigs in the U.S. at 585, with a year-on-year decrease of 33 rigs [19][20]. - The report indicates a recovery trend in the oil service sector, with drilling day rates expected to rise as global capital expenditures increase [2][19]. Refining Sector - The report notes an increase in overseas refined oil crack spreads, with Singapore's refining margin at $10.52 per barrel, suggesting improved refining profitability [2][19]. - The report anticipates that the refining sector will benefit from cost improvements and consumption tax reforms, recommending attention to leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong [2][14]. Polyester Sector - The report indicates that PTA profitability is on the rise, while polyester filament profitability is declining, suggesting a mixed outlook for the polyester industry [2][13]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor demand changes closely, especially as the industry enters the peak season [2][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality refining companies and suggests that the polyester sector may see improvements in demand as supply and demand dynamics shift [2][14]. - Specific companies highlighted for investment include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and Satellite Chemical, among others [2][14].