大选跟踪系列：美国大选结束后会发生什么

Election Overview - As of November 3, Trump leads Harris in four swing states, with polling indicating a tight race overall, Trump at 48.4% and Harris at 48.1%[9] - If current polling holds, Trump is projected to win 310 electoral votes, significantly above the 270 needed for victory[10] Policy Implications - Harris's policies focus on domestic issues, proposing a "Opportunity Economy" aimed at middle-class tax cuts and increased housing construction, potentially leading to a $6 trillion fiscal expansion over 10 years[24] - Trump's policies are expected to continue his previous term's focus, including large tax cuts and increased tariffs, potentially increasing U.S. debt by $7.8 trillion by 2035[24] Economic Impact - If Trump imposes a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, U.S. exports to China could decline by approximately 34%, impacting China's GDP by 0.4-0.5 percentage points[24] - The anticipated fiscal gap from Harris's policies could reach $4 trillion, while Trump's policies may lead to a $7.8 trillion increase in debt[24] Market Reactions - The election outcome is likely to influence asset prices through fundamental and event-based channels, with significant volatility expected during the election period[5] - A Trump victory could lead to a stronger dollar due to trade policies, while a Harris win may result in dollar movements driven by fiscal stimulus and economic fundamentals[5] Senate Control - The final control of the Senate is expected to depend on the presidential election outcome, with a likely 50:50 split between parties[17] - The Vice President's tie-breaking vote could play a crucial role in determining Senate control[17]