房地产行业专题研究：地产业绩延续探底，政策支持行业企稳

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The real estate industry continues to face performance pressure, with policy support aiding in market stabilization [3][4] - In the first three quarters of 2024, 24 sample real estate companies reported a 22.7% year-on-year decline in revenue and a 187.7% decline in net profit attributable to shareholders [2][8] - The overall gross profit margin decreased to 13.3%, while the asset-liability ratio stood at 76.5% [2][8] Summary by Sections 1. Financial Performance - Revenue and profit declines are expanding, with state-owned enterprises showing some resilience. In Q1-Q3 2024, state-owned enterprises saw a 15.2% decline in revenue and a 116.7% decline in net profit, while private enterprises experienced a 26.3% revenue decline and a staggering 797.0% decline in net profit [10][11] - The overall gross profit margin for the 24 sample companies was 13.3%, down 2.7 percentage points from the previous year. State-owned enterprises had a gross margin of 14.3%, while private enterprises had 16.1% [12][15] - The total contract liabilities for sample companies decreased by 27.5% to 1.7153 trillion yuan, with the coverage ratio of contract liabilities to revenue rising to 1.7 times [17][20] 2. Operational Performance - Sales performance is gradually improving due to policy support, with cumulative sales amount in the first nine months of 2024 down 22.7% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing [23][28] - The land market is experiencing a dual decline in supply and demand, with state-owned enterprises being the main players in land acquisition [22][23] 3. Financing Conditions - Financing costs have decreased, but liquidity pressure remains significant. The total bond issuance in the first half of 2024 was 282.8 billion yuan, down 29.8% year-on-year [3][15] - The average interest rate for bonds fell to 3.1% in the first half of 2024, with a slight increase to 3.1% in September [3][15] 4. Policy Environment - A series of policies have been implemented to stabilize the market, including lowering mortgage rates and adjusting down payment ratios for second homes [3][4] - First-tier cities have responded quickly to central government policies by relaxing purchase restrictions [4][22] 5. Investment Recommendations - Focus on leading state-owned enterprises and those capable of developing improvement-oriented products [3][4] - The report suggests monitoring companies with strong land acquisition capabilities in key first-tier and core second-tier cities, as well as property management companies with scale advantages and operational efficiency [3][4]