化工行业行业周报：价差表现分化，关注化工结构性机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [3]. Core Viewpoints - Oil prices have declined again, focusing on OPEC+ production policies, with Brent and WTI prices at $73.10 and $69.49 per barrel respectively as of November 1, down 3.88% and 3.19% from the previous week [1][12]. - The chemical industry is currently valued at a low level compared to historical averages, presenting medium to long-term investment opportunities [2][3]. - Recent policy measures are expected to improve macroeconomic expectations and boost investor confidence, leading to a gradual recovery in chemical industry valuations [2][3]. Summary by Sections Oil Market Analysis - As of November 1, Brent and WTI prices have decreased by 5.11% and 3.01% year-to-date, respectively [1][12]. - OPEC+ may delay its planned production increase originally set for December, influenced by geopolitical tensions and differing energy policy stances in the U.S. [1][13]. - U.S. refinery utilization rates fell to 89.1% as of October 25, with expectations of an increase as winter heating oil demand rises [1][13]. - OPEC has lowered its global oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025, indicating a weaker supply-demand outlook [1][13]. Chemical Industry Valuation - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for petrochemical and basic chemical sectors are 17.1x and 23.0x, respectively, showing a premium of 9.2% and a discount of 19.6% compared to historical averages [2][3]. - The chemical industry is experiencing low price differentials due to supply and demand pressures, but there is potential for valuation recovery driven by policy stimulus [2][3]. Price Movements - In the week tracked, 28 out of 170 monitored chemical products saw price increases, while 85 products decreased in price, indicating a weak overall price performance [17][21]. - Notable price increases were observed in products such as hydrofluoric acid and 1,4-butanediol, attributed to tight supply and rising demand in downstream applications [17][18]. - Conversely, significant price declines were noted in products like liquid chlorine and fuel oil, reflecting broader market trends [21][23].