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永辉超市:品质零售转型引领行业变革 业绩拐点或可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [3][11]. Core Views - The company reported its Q3 2024 results, which met expectations, with revenue of 54.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 12.14%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -0.78 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.30 billion yuan year-on-year [3]. - The company is undergoing a transformation by learning from successful retail models, with significant improvements observed in 10 remodeled stores, leading to a new phase of expansion [3]. - A partnership with Miniso is expected to enhance supply chain collaboration and improve product offerings, as Miniso will become the largest shareholder of the company [3]. - Store optimization is ongoing, with the company opening 2 new stores and closing 186 underperforming ones, indicating a proactive approach to improving operational efficiency [3]. - The company anticipates a recovery in performance as the remodeling efforts take effect, with revenue forecasts adjusted to 70.10 billion yuan for 2024 and 75.96 billion yuan for 2025 [3]. Financial Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 19.19%, a decrease of 1.69 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to store remodeling efforts [3]. - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 70.10 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 10.9% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be -0.29 billion yuan in 2024, improving to 0.84 billion yuan in 2025 and 5.82 billion yuan in 2026 [4][5].