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有色金属行业周报:海外核心通胀韧性较强,看好金属价格上涨
Tai Ping Yang·2024-11-04 04:00

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating a favorable investment rating [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights strong resilience in overseas core inflation, supporting expectations for rising metal prices [1][3]. - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a weekly increase of 1.64%, ranking 7th among A-share industries, with significant growth in specific sub-sectors [11][12]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals Market Review - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index decreased by 1.68%, while the non-ferrous metals industry index increased by 1.64% [11]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals industry index has risen by 13.04%, slightly below the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index's increase of 13.37% [11]. Base Metals - Copper prices on the LME decreased by 0.26% to $9,539 per ton, while domestic copper prices fell by 0.13% to ¥76,515 per ton [20]. - The average price of copper concentrate (TC) increased by $0.23 to $11.09 per ton, indicating a slight recovery in resource availability for domestic smelters [20]. - The report anticipates an increase in basic metal prices due to rising demand from the air conditioning sector, with production expected to reach 15.19 million units in November, a significant year-on-year increase [20]. Aluminum - LME aluminum prices fell by 2.51% to $2,603 per ton, while domestic aluminum prices decreased by 0.18% to ¥20,800 per ton [24]. - The report notes stable production capacity for electrolytic aluminum and rising alumina prices, which support aluminum prices [24]. Zinc - LME zinc prices decreased by 1.08% to $3,066 per ton, with domestic zinc prices falling by 0.45% to ¥25,156 per ton [28]. - Zinc inventories on the LME increased by 1.92% to 247,100 tons, indicating a slight supply increase [28]. Lead - LME lead prices decreased by 0.15% to $2,039 per ton, while domestic lead prices fell by 0.75% to ¥16,488 per ton [29]. - Lead inventories on the LME decreased by 0.46% to 189,600 tons, suggesting a tightening supply [29]. Tin - LME tin prices increased by 1.27% to $31,800 per ton, while domestic tin prices fell by 0.09% to ¥254,263 per ton [32]. - Tin inventories on the LME decreased by 1.27% to 4,700 tons, indicating a reduction in available supply [32]. Nickel - LME nickel prices remained stable at $16,120 per ton, while domestic nickel prices decreased by 2.50% to ¥124,083 per ton [34]. - Nickel inventories on the LME increased by 8.34% to 146,800 tons, reflecting a growing supply [34]. Precious Metals - The report maintains a bullish outlook on gold prices, with Comex gold rising by 0.18% to $3,014 per ounce and domestic gold prices increasing by 1.18% to ¥630 per gram [38]. - The expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut in November has increased, further supporting the long-term bullish trend for gold prices [38].